Executive Summary

Revenue modestly beat consensus as leasing drove Same Property NOI growth; Q3 2025 total income was $74.466M vs Wall Street revenue consensus of $73.396M, while EBITDA modestly exceeded estimates; Primary EPS missed on S&P methodology despite company reporting $0.08 diluted EPS *.
Guidance raised on SPNOI (to 4.75–5.25%) and low-end of NAREIT FFO/Core FFO per share; net income per share range trimmed; net investment activity range widened materially to $49.6–$158.6M .
Operational metrics remained strong: leased occupancy 97.2%, blended re-leasing spread 11.5%, ABR PSF $20.28; anchor leased occupancy 99.3% and small shop 93.8% .
Capital actions: term loan recast extended maturities to 4.7 years, forward-starting swaps fixed future rates, and four Q3 acquisitions totaling $250.2M support Sun Belt focus—cited by management as pivotal for sustainable FCF growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Same Property NOI grew 6.4% YoY; management attributes gains to escalators, occupancy, rent spreads, redevelopment, and net reimbursements (offset by modest bad debt) .
NAREIT FFO/share rose to $0.49; Core FFO/share to $0.47, reflecting operating strength and accretive acquisitions despite a higher share count .
Strategic capital and portfolio moves: extended term loan maturities with swaps, and acquired four high-quality assets; CEO emphasized “disciplined capital allocation” and “sustainable growth in free cash flow” .

Selected quotes:

“We executed on multiple fronts… deploying more than $350 million into high-quality Sun Belt assets — all while delivering strong operating performance.” — DJ Busch, CEO .
“Net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained at a sector low four times… we have ample capacity to execute our capital plan while maintaining balance sheet strength.” — CFO Mike Phillips .
“New leases for the third quarter achieved a 25.6% spread, while renewals averaged 10.4%, producing a blended spread of 11.5%.” — COO Christy David .

What Went Wrong

EPS miss vs SPGI consensus: Primary EPS consensus $0.08 vs SPGI actual $0.0405; management also flagged back-end loaded Q4 operating and corporate expenses, tempering near-term cadence *.
Minor occupancy headwinds: anchor leased occupancy down 20 bps sequentially; small shop expected to “decline a tad” near term before reaccelerating in 2026 .
Retention affected by strategic de-leasing tied to redevelopment at Gateway (FL), pressuring near-term lease-to-economic occupancy spread (still ~160 bps; $5.0M annualized base rent) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenues ($USD)	$73.389M	$73.130M	$74.019M
Total Income ($USD)	$73.771M	$73.551M	$74.466M
Net Income ($USD)	$6.792M	$95.942M	$6.026M
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.09	$1.23	$0.08
EBITDA ($USD)	$44.226M*	$42.086M*	$44.863M*
EBITDA Margin (%)	59.95%*	57.22%*	60.25%*
Net Income Margin (%)	9.21%*	130.44%*	8.09%*
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)	$84.579M	$294.039M	$76.366M

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 vs Wall Street Consensus (SPGI)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Revenue ($USD)	$73.396M*	$74.466M*	+$1.07M (+1.5%); bold beat*
Primary EPS ($)	$0.08*	$0.0405*	–$0.0395; bold miss*
Normalized EPS ($)	$0.07*	$0.0405*	–$0.0295; bold miss*
EBITDA ($USD)	$44.010M*	$44.863M*	+$0.853M; bold beat*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Same Property NOI ($USD)	$47.286M	$42.626M	$44.284M
SPNOI Growth YoY	6.1%	4.8%	6.4%
Leased Occupancy	97.3%	97.3%	97.2%
Anchor Leased Occupancy	99.5%	99.5%	99.3%
Small Shop Leased Occupancy	93.4%	93.8%	93.8%
Leased-to-Economic Occ. Spread	190 bps	180 bps	160 bps (~$5.0M ABR)
ABR PSF	$20.21	$20.18	$20.28
Comparable Re-leasing Spread	9.6%	16.4%	11.5%
Leases Executed (GLA)	69 (256k sf)	73 (304k sf)	56 (409k sf; 360k comparable)
Liquidity ($USD)	$577.4M	$787.1M	$570.7M
Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA	4.1x	2.8x	4.0x
Weighted Avg Interest Rate	4.03%	4.03%	3.98%

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (7/29/25)	Current Guidance (10/28/25)	Change
Net Income per diluted share	FY 2025	$1.43–$1.49	$1.40–$1.44	Lowered range
NAREIT FFO per diluted share	FY 2025	$1.83–$1.89	$1.85–$1.89	Raised low end
Core FFO per diluted share	FY 2025	$1.79–$1.83	$1.80–$1.83	Raised low end
SPNOI Growth	FY 2025	4.00%–5.00%	4.75%–5.25%	Raised
G&A ($USD)	FY 2025	$34.25–$35.75M	$34.25–$35.75M	Maintained
Interest expense, net ($USD)	FY 2025	$31.0–$31.5M	$31.0–$31.5M	Maintained
Net investment activity ($USD)	FY 2025	~ $100M	$49.6–$158.6M	Widened range (raised high end)

Notes: Guidance excludes gains/losses on dispositions/debt and certain GAAP rent adjustments; includes 55–75 bps expected uncollectibility .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Sun Belt focus & portfolio rotation	Q2: Sold 5 CA properties for $306M; redeployed to Sun Belt ; Q1: Sun Belt platform driving results	CEO: Sun Belt consumer fundamentals strong; continued rotation, awarded >$100M pipeline assets	Positive
Bad debt / expense cadence	Q1: Uncollectibility 75–100 bps in guidance ; Q2: 65–85 bps	Lowered to 55–75 bps; Q4 property ops & corporate expenses backloaded	Improving but near-term expense headwinds
Occupancy & pipeline	Q1/Q2: 97.3% leased occupancy	97.2% leased; small shop may dip near term, reaccelerate in 2026; ~90% of 2026 leasing executed	Stable to ↑ in 2026
Re-leasing spreads & retention	Q2 blended 16.4% ; Q1 blended 9.6%	Q3 blended 11.5%; YTD retention 82% (89% ex Gateway redevelopment)	Strong; redevelopment effects
Capital structure & maturities	Q1/Q2: Wtd avg rate 4.03%; net debt / Adj EBITDA 4.1x→2.8x	Term loan extended; forward-starting swaps to ~4.50–4.58%; wtd avg rate 3.98%; net debt/Adj EBITDA 4.0x	Proactive; stable leverage
Acquisition pipeline	Q2: 4 acquisitions; and subsequent 2 announced	Robust pipeline (> $1B looked at); awarded >$100M; focus grocery-anchored	Active

Management Commentary

“We executed on multiple fronts… extending our debt maturities through a successful term-loan recast, and deploying more than $350 million into high-quality Sun Belt assets — all while delivering strong operating performance.” — DJ Busch, CEO .
“We are raising… same property NOI growth guidance to 4.75%–5.25%… increasing the midpoint of our NAREIT FFO guidance to $1.87 and raising the low end of core FFO guidance to $1.80–$1.83.” — CFO Mike Phillips .
“New leases… achieved a 25.6% spread, renewals averaged 10.4%, producing a blended 11.5%… more than 90% of 2026 leasing is already executed.” — COO Christy David .
“Net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained at a sector low four times… ample capacity to execute our capital plan.” — CFO Mike Phillips .

Q&A Highlights

Restaurant/QSR demand: Despite headlines, demand across fast casual and sit-down remains healthy; some turnover already backfilled; issues more operator-specific than category-wide .
Occupancy trajectory: Small shop to dip slightly near term, reaccelerate in 2026; anchor vacancies concentrated in strategic redevelopment; confident in pipeline .
Net investment range: Two awarded deals drive wide range; timing could slip into early 2026; California last asset disposition likely in 2026 due to administrative/environmental matters .
Bad debt visibility: Forecasted 55 bps visible; top-end reserve covers unforeseen fallout .
Lease-to-economic occupancy spread: Normal run-rate ~150–200 bps; ~$5M signed-not-open pipeline (~80% expected to open next year) to compress spread as openings commence .

Estimates Context

Compared to SPGI consensus, Q3 revenue beat (+1.5%), EBITDA beat, while SPGI “Primary” and “Normalized” EPS missed; company-reported diluted EPS was $0.08. The methodological differences in SPGI Primary EPS versus company diluted EPS can drive divergence, and management flagged Q4 expense cadence and higher share count as partial offsets to per-share metrics near term * *.
Estimate implications: Raise SPNOI and FFO per share low-end likely supports upward revisions to NOI/FFO models; near-term EPS normalization may stay cautious given backloaded expenses and redevelopment timing .